The 2026 World Cup is approaching, and football fans around the world are eager to know which traditional power – house has the highest probability of winning the championship. Opta supercomputer has given the first – wave of predictions, let’s take a look at the winning probabilities of the eight traditional strong teams.
The Dark – horse Contender: Netherlands
The Netherlands, known as the “team without a crown”, has a 5.2% winning probability according to the Opta supercomputer. Although their lineup is not as star – studded as other power – houses, there are still many powerful players in the team. Memphis Depay is the soul of the team, who has scored 54 goals for the national team, surpassing Robin van Persie as the best scorer in the history of the Dutch national team. The Dutch team reached the semi – finals of the 2024 European Cup, which is their best result in major competitions since they won the third place in the 2014 World Cup. With their real strength, it is not difficult to understand the 5.2% winning probability.
The Five – time Champions: Brazil
For the Brazilian team, the road to the championship is a bit bumpy. They only ranked fifth in the South American qualifiers, and the new coach Carlo Ancelotti has been in office for less than eight months, with some unsatisfactory results. The Opta supercomputer gives the Samba Legion a 5.6% winning probability. To win the championship, much may depend on whether Ancelotti can give full play to Vinícius Júnior’s potential. In addition, there are two uncertain factors, whether the player from Chelsea can emerge, and whether Ancelotti will recall Neymar. Although Brazil has a glorious history, its recent performance has been disappointing, and it has not broken through the quarter – finals in the past two World Cups and the 2024 Copa América.
The Team with Ronaldo: Portugal
Portugal, with Ronaldo, has a 6.6% winning probability predicted by the supercomputer. Ronaldo’s strength is still not to be underestimated, as he scored 84 goals in 86 league games in Saudi Arabia after leaving Manchester United. Portugal has one of the most talented line – ups in this tournament, with players like Vitinha, Rúben Neves and Nuno Mendes performing well, and Ruben Dias and others forming a strong central axis. They won the UEFA Nations League this year, indicating their good form. Perhaps the winning probability of 6.6% is a bit low for them.
The German Team on the Road to Revival: Germany
The German team is the fifth – ranked team in the Opta supercomputer’s prediction, with a winning probability of 7.1%. Nagelsmann has brought the German team out of the predicament left by Flick, but there is still a certain distance from the traditional strong German team. Their qualification for the World Cup was not easy, and they only confirmed their place in the World Cup in the last round of the qualifiers. There are many problems in the selection of players, such as the goalkeeper’s position and the midfield combination. However, it is too hasty to rule out their championship possibility, and the 7.1% winning probability is relatively reasonable.
The Reigning Champions: Argentina
Argentina, the reigning champion, has Messi, and they have a good chance to win the second World Cup championship. Messi is still in excellent form, helping Inter Miami win the 2025 MLS championship and having amazing goal and assist data. Argentina has an advantage in the South American World Cup qualifiers and won the Copa América last year. Although Di María has retired from the national team, Argentina’s overall strength is still strong, and the cooperation among players is tacit. With Messi, any team cannot be underestimated.
The Three – Lions: England
England has a long – standing championship drought in major competitions, but its recent results are not bad. They won all eight games in the European qualifiers, showing strong strength. Under the coaching of Tuchel, the team may make some breakthroughs. England has many outstanding players, such as Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and others, but there are also some problems, such as the competition for the position behind Harry Kane and how to use the players after injury. The supercomputer gives them a certain winning probability, and they are also one of the championship – hopeful teams.
The Gallic Rooster: France
France has a winning probability of 14.1%, ranking second among the eight strong teams. This World Cup is of special significance to France, as it is the last World Cup for Deschamps to coach the French national team. Mbappé will participate in the World Cup as the captain of France, and he and Ousmane Dembélé are in their prime. France has a talented lineup, with a solid midfield and defense. Although they lack some players, they still have a great advantage. If they can give full play to their strength, it is not surprising that they can win the championship.
The Favorite: Spain
The Spanish team is the team with the highest winning probability in the Opta supercomputer’s prediction. They won the 2024 European Cup and have remained unbeaten in 31 consecutive official games, showing a strong momentum. The young players such as Yamal and Pedri are in excellent form, and the team’s tactical system is mature. If key players like Rodri and Gavi can play in good health, Spain is very likely to reproduce the glorious feat of winning the European Cup and the World Cup in a row from 2008 to 2012.
In general, each traditional power – house has its own advantages and disadvantages. Spain, with its excellent form and young lineup, is the favorite to win the championship. However, the World Cup is full of uncertainties, and any team may create miracles. We are looking forward to a wonderful World Cup.
Part of the data comes from:
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