The Derby Della Madonnina: A Look at AC Milan vs Inter Milan Lineups
The world of football pauses for the Derby della Madonnina. This historic rivalry features two giant powerhouses of Italian football. Inter Milan is hosting AC Milan at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. This highly anticipated match is scheduled for November 23, 2025, at 20:45 GMT. Furthermore, this clash is much more than just a battle for city dominance. It is a critical fixture right at the top of the Serie A table. Therefore, examining the predicted ac milan vs inter milan lineups is absolutely essential.
Inter enters this match as the league leader. They sit securely in 1st place with a solid 24 points. Inter has played 11 games, achieving 8 wins and 3 losses. Conversely, Milan stands close behind them. They occupy 3rd place with 22 points. Milan boasts an impressive record of 6 wins, 4 draws, and only 1 loss. Since the points gap is so minimal, this contest is predicted to be fiercely close.
This preview uses mathematical algorithms and statistical models. Consequently, it generates a data-driven forecast for this massive encounter. The modeling reveals an exceptionally balanced match is expected.
The Data-Driven Forecast: A Probable 2-2 Stalemate
Forebet, the data and analytics platform, uses math to generate football predictions. Therefore, the platform provides a detailed probability-based forecast. The core prediction for this Derby is a Draw (X).
The probability figures show how tightly contested this game is. The chance of a Draw is the highest prediction at 43%. An Inter Win (1) stands at 29% probability. Meanwhile, a Milan Win (2) is slightly lower at 28% probability. Thus, a draw is the statistically most likely outcome.
The predicted final score strongly supports this forecast. The mathematical model suggests a high-scoring 2 – 2 draw. This result is reinforced by several goal-scoring probabilities. The chance of Over 2.5 goals is 55%. Most compellingly, the probability for Both Teams To Score (BTTS) is remarkably high at 76%. Since both teams have strong attacking tendencies, a mutual scoring affair is almost guaranteed.
Predicted Match Flow: Half Time Stability
The model also forecasts the momentum throughout the 90 minutes. It forecasts a Draw at Half Time (X) followed by a Draw at Full Time (X). This specific outcome holds an 18% probability. Milan’s consistent form heavily supports this early prediction. Milan is currently undefeated at Half Time (HT) in 18 consecutive Serie A matches. Therefore, a tactical deadlock is expected during the first 45 minutes.
| Prediction Metric | Inter vs Milan (23/11/2025) | Probability (%) | Key Trend Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result (1X2) | Draw (X) | 43% | Highest probability outcome. |
| Correct Score | 2 – 2 | Predicted | Reinforces the high BTTS chance. |
| Over/Under 2.5 Goals | Over 2.5 | 55% | Inter scores 2.47 per game; Milan scores 1.69 per game. |
| Both Teams To Score | Yes | 76% | Both teams possess strong scoring streaks. |
| Half Time/Full Time | Draw / Draw (X/X) | 18% | Supported by Milan’s long undefeated HT streak. |
Form Analysis: Contrasting Paths to the Derby
Both teams approach this match with impressive momentum. However, their recent form shows dramatically different styles.
Inter’s Imperious Attack
Inter has displayed strong, winning form. Their recent run over six matches is W-W-W-W-L-W. This sequence translates to a massive 83% win rate in their last six games. Inter’s home performance is particularly assertive. They have a flawless 100% win rate in their last six home matches.
Inter’s offensive trends are outstanding. They have scored at least one goal in their last 15 consecutive Serie A games. Furthermore, they have scored at least two goals in their last 4 home league games. Inter also dominates score margins at home. They have won all of their last 3 home league matches by a margin of 2+ goals. Clearly, Inter is a high-pressure, high-scoring team.
Milan’s Unbreakable Defense
Milan’s form emphasizes resilience and drawing ability. Their last six matches show a different pattern: D-W-D-D-W-D. This run means Milan has a 67% draw rate. Crucially, Milan has not lost any of their last 10 matches in Serie A.
Milan’s trends prove their ability to secure points away from home. They are undefeated in 8 of their last 9 away encounters in Serie A. Most tellingly, Milan has drawn all of their last 3 away league matches. This suggests their primary goal in the Derby is earning a draw. Milan’s defensive record is robust. They have only conceded 0.82 goals per game this season.
Tactical Symmetries: The AC Milan vs Inter Milan Lineups
The predicted starting XIs are critical for understanding the tactical choices. Both rivals are predicted to deploy the same 3-5-2 formation. This setup is designed to maximize midfield control. It also uses aggressive wing-backs for width.
Inter Milan: Predicted 3-5-2
Inter’s lineup is built for high pressure and ball dominance. They average 60% Ball Possession. The formation must also address key injuries. Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Hamstring Injury) is confirmed to miss the match.
The predicted Inter alineación for the Derby is specific:
| Position | Player Name (Predicted) | Key Role Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper (G) | Yann Sommer | Must command the box against Milan’s efficiency. |
| Defender (R) | Manuel Akanji | Forms part of the crucial back three. |
| Defender (C) | Yann Bisseck | Predicted central defensive presence. |
| Defender (L) | Alessandro Bastoni | Important for starting attacks from defense. |
| Right Wingback (RWB) | Denzel Dumfries | Included despite listed Ankle Problems. His role is vital for width. |
| Center Mid (CM) | Nicolò Barella | The dynamic engine driving Inter’s high intensity. |
| Center Mid (CM) | Davide Frattesi | Expected to start, compensating for Mkhitaryan’s absence. |
| Center Mid (CM) | Petar Sučić | Predicted to ensure numerical strength in midfield. |
| Left Wingback (LWB) | Federico Dimarco | Essential for delivering dangerous balls from the flank. |
| Forward (ST) | Lautaro Martínez | CRUCIAL PLAYER and Predicted Scorer. Leads Inter’s attack. |
| Forward (ST) | Ange-Yoan Bonny | CRUCIAL PLAYER and Predicted Scorer. Forms the dual striking partnership. |
AC Milan: Predicted 3-5-2 for Resilience
Milan’s predicted 3-5-2 formation suggests a specific tactical response. It aims to match Inter’s midfield numbers. Milan’s strategy focuses on frustrating the opponent. Their robust defense has only conceded 0.82 goals per game.
The predicted Milan alineación features star power and control:
| Position | Player Name (Predicted) | Notes/Role Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Goalkeeper (G) | Mike Maignan | Must be sharp against Inter’s volume of shots (18.53 per game). |
| Defender (R) | Fikayo Tomori | Provides crucial pace in the back three. |
| Defender (C) | Matteo Gabbia | Key to maintaining the team’s defensive structure. |
| Defender (L) | Strahinja Pavlović | Predicted starting defender. |
| Right Mid/WB (RWB) | Alexis Saelemaekers | Expected to manage the right flank duties. |
| Center Mid (CM) | Youssouf Fofana | Provides defensive tenacity and midfield battles. |
| Center Mid (CM) | Luka Modrić | MAJOR PREDICTED STARTER, enhances control and high passing accuracy (89%). |
| Center Mid (CM) | Samuele Ricci | Expected to contribute to midfield stability. |
| Left Mid/WB (LWB) | Davide Bartesaghi | Must push forward and cover defensively on the left. |
| Attacker (ST) | Rafael Leão | Key attacking talent, relies on bursts of individual brilliance. |
| Attacker (ST) | Christopher Nkunku | MAJOR PREDICTED STARTER, essential for converting counter-attacks. |
Key Players: The Predicted Goal Threats
The predicted ac milan vs inter milan lineups point to three specific players who are mathematically expected to score. Their ability to deliver will validate the predicted 2-2 scoreline.
Lautaro Martínez (Inter)
Martínez is Inter’s captain and leading forward. He is a Predicted Scorer. Inter generates an average of 57.13 dangerous attacks per game. Martínez is essential for finishing these numerous opportunities. His efficiency will be crucial for Inter to score the two predicted goals.
Ange-Yoan Bonny (Inter)
Bonny is the second Inter player named as a Predicted Scorer. His inclusion in the starting lineup next to Martínez forms a potent duo. This prediction suggests high confidence in Inter’s ability to breach Milan’s tight defense.
Hakan Çalhanoğlu (Inter)
Çalhanoğlu is also listed among the Predicted Scorers. This is highly significant because the injury report lists him with a Wrist Injury. His expected goal contribution, despite the injury risk, highlights his importance. He remains the central figure orchestrating Inter’s high 60% possession.
The Milan Attackers: Leão and Nkunku
Milan’s predicted attack features Rafael Leão and Christopher Nkunku. Although the model names Bonny as a scorer, Leão and Nkunku are tasked with the crucial job of scoring Milan’s goals. Milan must be highly efficient with their chances. They average fewer shots (15.15 per game) than Inter (18.53 per game). Therefore, the performance of Leão and Nkunku is vital for the predicted 76% BTTS outcome.
The Deep Statistical Showdown: Volume vs Efficiency
The detailed statistics reveal the contrasting strategies both teams employ. This contrast directly leads to the high probability of a draw.
Offensive and Possession Metrics
Inter dominates metrics related to attacking volume and ball control.
- Possession and Passing: Inter averages 60% Ball Possession. They also average 541.07 passes per game. Milan holds 54% possession. However, Milan shows slightly superior efficiency, with an 89% Accurate Pass percentage. Inter’s accurate pass rate is 87%.
- Attack Volume: Inter is clearly the more aggressive side. They average 107.53 total attacks per game. They also produce 57.13 dangerous attacks per game. This high volume confirms their offensive pressure.
- Goal Output: Inter averages 2.47 goals per game. Milan averages 1.69 goals per game. This high combined average strongly supports the Over 2.5 goals prediction.
Defensive and Disciplinary Data
Milan’s strength lies in its defensive fortitude and discipline.
- Defensive Stability: Milan has conceded only 0.69 goals per game. This is significantly better than Inter’s 0.87 goals conceded per game. Milan has also collected seven clean sheets in 13 games.
- Fouls and Cards: Inter commits more fouls than Milan. Inter averages 13.6 fouls per game. Milan commits only 9.38 fouls per game. The prediction for the Derby is Under 4.5 cards (67% probability).
- Corners: The high attacking volume ensures a high corner count. The model predicts Over 9.5 corners (54% probability). Inter averages 6.87 corners per game, while Milan averages 5.46 corners per game.
| Statistical Category | Inter (Avg. per game) | Milan (Avg. per game) | Inter vs Milan Comparison |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 2.47 | 1.69 | Inter is higher-scoring. |
| Goals Conceded | 0.87 | 0.69 | Milan is defensively tighter. |
| Ball Possession | 60% | 54% | Inter controls the ball more frequently. |
| Total Shots | 18.53 | 15.15 | Inter attacks with higher volume. |
| Clean Sheets | 0.53 (8 total) | 0.54 (7 total) | Both maintain strong clean sheet records. |
Historical Precedent: The Volatile Derby History
The Derby della Madonnina is famous for its unpredictable results. Inter holds a slight historical advantage. Over 61 meetings, Inter has 27 wins, 13 draws, and 21 losses.
However, the recent H2H history injects high volatility. Inter has suffered 3 defeats in their most recent 6 matches against Milan. This recent trend shows Milan knows how to overcome Inter, despite Inter’s current league dominance.
The last clash saw a surprising result. Milan secured a commanding 3-0 away victory against Inter in the Coppa Italia in April 2025. Notably, Milan achieved this despite Inter dominating possession (56%) and shooting more often (17 shots to Milan’s 8). This demonstrates Milan’s tactical efficiency is a major threat. This historical volatility strongly supports the model’s 43% draw probability.
Conclusion: A Tactical Symmetrical Showdown
This massive Serie A showdown will be defined by the tactical symmetry of the predicted ac milan vs inter milan lineups. Both teams are expected to field a 3-5-2 formation. This setup guarantees a fierce battle for midfield supremacy. Inter, driven by high possession and the scoring threat of Lautaro Martínez and Ange-Yoan Bonny, will try to dictate play. Meanwhile, Milan, bolstered by the predicted inclusion of Luka Modrić and the efficiency of Rafael Leão and Christopher Nkunku, will rely on their defensive resilience.
The injury status of Hakan Çalhanoğlu remains a key factor. Yet, his inclusion as a predicted scorer highlights his indispensable role. The mathematical evidence points strongly to a 2-2 draw. This result stems from Inter’s high attack volume meeting Milan’s tactical discipline and unbeaten streak. The stalemate ensures the Serie A title race remains intensely contested. The predicted draw confirms Milan’s ability to secure vital points away from home.
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